Interviews with Key Informants: The Example of Morocco

One more piece of empirical evidence was collected for the qualitative fieldwork through interviews with key informants. In all five countries government officials and nongovernmental experts are well aware of the stress caused by changes in climatic conditions, and of the fact that climate change contributes to rural-urban migration flows even if today it is not the main driver of these flows. They also realize that in most cases, the lack of sufficiently ambitious and well-developed policies and programs contributes to the inability to propose concrete solutions and help to those most affected by climate change in rural areas. Many of the comments made by government officials and non-governmental experts in the various countries were similar so that rather than provide examples from all countries, it is probably more instructive to cover one country in slightly more depth. 

This is done in this section for Morocco because more respondents were either experts on migration or were conducting ongoing research on migration-related issues. Key informants in Morocco explained that migration was historically by men and driven by inequitable development in rural areas. The absence of networks in destination areas made women vulnerable to prostitution or slave labor, so they were less likely to migrate than men. Migrants migrated both internationally and internally, in that case principally to Casablanca, which continues to remain as a prime destination for rural migrants since the Greater Casablanca area alone still attracts around 15 percent of all national migration flows in the country. Today territorial units nearby Casablanca have also become preferred destinations for newcomers. 

This is for example the case of Ain Sebaa, Sidi Moumen, Moulay Rachid, Hay Hassani, Mohammedia city, and districts of Sidi Bernoussi and Hay Mohammadi. Migration to other cities has also picked up as rural migrants are searching for destinations closer to their homes. Key informants explained that three main features remain central to migratory flows irrespective of origin and destination locations. The first is the importance of networks which play a critical role in providing support to migrant families and in helping them to decide their destinations. A second key feature is the importance of the remittances sent by migrants, which are critical not only for household survival in rural areas but also for communities. In Tiznit for example, migrant associations are helping build two-thirds of the roads. Several informants also stated that migration facilitated women's empowerment in rural areas, as the women who remained in the countryside while their husbands were away working in the cities gained more independence and were also more likely to interact with their neighbors. A third important feature, especially in recent years, has been the role of climatic patterns in internal migration. 

Drastic changes in climatic conditions have led to an expansion of shantytowns. In Tafilelt for example, a fourth of the population has migrated due to climatic hazards that had affected agricultural production. Likewise, in the Draa region which has historically been an important center of trade but more recently has been experiencing frequent and longer droughts, out-migration has increased. In general, informants agree that the so-called Oasis belt is losing its population as people are becoming increasingly affected by the negative effects of droughts. Outgoing migration is primarily stemming from the water crisis that Morocco is experiencing. Six of our respondents mentioned water as a major issue, in part due to more droughts, but also with flooding in some areas. 

For example, the Tafilalt region, one of the most important oasis regions in the country, has suffered from severe droughts and flooding which in turn have undermined oasis agriculture. While droughts used to occur every four to five years, they now occur every two years. Climatic hazards are also leading to severe desertification in the Sahara region. Rising seawater levels are also a concern, among others in Saadia where tourism may have contributed to destroying plant life and consequently making the land vulnerable. A respondent suggested that 60 percent of Saadi may soon be underwater. These severe climatic conditions have had a large impact on rural populations, with farmers experiencing increased water scarcity with no access to water reserves. Women have to travel much further away to get water. 

Some respondents were convinced that agricultural yields will fall by 20 percent in 20 years, which drive more migrants from rural areas toward urban centers. Life in the cities will then become difficult for both locals and migrants. Many respondents mentioned ongoing housing and employment crises in urban areas. As locals and migrants compete for survival, the integration will become a major problem and economic discrimination will rise, as may black markets and the informal economy. In large cities such as Casablanca, many migrants are already found to be living in shantytowns. The pressures of living in cities along with influences from urban lifestyles have also been weakening social structures between migrants and their families which may have severe consequences for those still living in Morocco’s rural areas. 

In recognition of these challenges, respondents explained that the Moroccan government launched initiatives at both the national and local levels. One such initiative is a higher focus on rural development programs, among others, through the Human Development Initiative (HDI) which is designed to target vulnerable populations in both rural and urban areas. At the local level, the government is also conducting awareness programs to inform people about climate change. The objective is to teach people about conservation and preservation of water resources, disaster preparedness to limit the negative effects of droughts, and different irrigation schemes to encourage the agricultural sector to become independent of water resources. 

Climate change has also been included as a key component in other initiatives such as Morocco Green and the Communal Development Plan. There is also an Energy Strategy Plan being initiated, and work is ongoing toward an insurance plan named ‘Natural Catastrophe Insurance.’ Active research programs are also ongoing in a few universities. Despite these initiatives, respondents perceived some fatalism, with many believing that everything is happening because of Allah’s will. And at times government programs may contribute to the issues. One respondent mentioned a dam that instead of stopping flooding drained water resources from the ground, leading to poor water quality and affecting surrounding palm trees.

Adverse Weather Trends

Adverse weather trends such as increased flooding and droughts shape the decisions to migrate made by household and individuals. Climate change is widely perceived to reduce crop yields and livestock production, decrease water availability, reduce fishing populations, and limit opportunities in rural areas that depend heavily on agriculture. The goal of this chapter was to contribute to a better understanding of the relationships between climate change, environmental degradation, deterioration of agriculture, and human mobility, through an exploration of the attitudes of rural residents and urban migrants in our five focus countries. Rural residents use a range of coping mechanisms to survive, ranging from eating less and borrowing money to selling livestock and other assets. 

Remittances are also important for survival, and when this source of income is insufficient, additional household members are forced to migrate to other areas in search of better opportunities. Overall, while in some countries such as Egypt and to some extent Morocco, there is a perception that migration opens up new opportunities, in other countries such as Syria, for many migrants migration may be a strategy of last resort than a real choice. While such differences between countries seem to emerge from the qualitative fieldwork and tend to also be supported by quantitative household survey data, of course, individual situations remain highly household and area-specific within each of the five countries. 

The qualitative work also suggests that for urban migrants, the arduous task of obtaining a job is further hindered by corruption and fierce competition with locals for limited employment opportunities. Social dislocation is a risk, with many migrants feeling inferior, alienated, and different in their new urban environs. Many face job discrimination, harassment, and exploitation at the hands of their supervisors and would-be employers. Poor housing conditions, rising food and rent prices, and the obligation to send remittances back home place substantial pressure on urban migrants. Yet, these coexist alongside some benefits. 

For example, migrants appreciate the independence, social outlets, and opportunities that urban life has to offer. A number of suggestions were made by households as well as migrants about the types of programs that could be of help to them, in both urban and rural areas. It is not the place in this chapter to comment on whether such recommendations are appropriate, or even feasible to implement by governments. In order to come up with such an assessment, a much more detailed analysis of the types of programs proposed, their cost, and their benefits, would be required. 

But what does emerge from the interviews with key informants is that while government officials and nongovernmental experts are aware of the consequences of climate change and extreme weather events for the population, they also recognize that the extent to which governments are dealing with these issues today is limited. This is a finding that is also emerging from other chapters in this study, in that both the community level responses and government programs and policies not only to cope with weather shocks but also to adapt to climate change, remain insufficient.

Forest in Trouble

As the 1990s progressed, it became clear to those of us in public health that a wave of infectious diseases was striking humans and many other forms of life. Humans faced multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis, Ebola, HIV, and dozens of other new pathogens. Crops were becoming infested with insects and infected with emerging viruses. Dolphins, whales, and seals were suffering from measles-like viruses, while fish were going belly up en masse with increasing frequency. Even trees were in trouble. 

Throughout the 1990s, I’d been trying to forge a new synthesis that would explain how a changing world could breed a wave of epidemics. I had begun my intellectual exploration into health and global change by gazing at a diagram that hangs in frames on the walls of public health offices nationwide. The diagram consists of three interlocking circles, emblazoned with the letters A, H, and E. It is known as a Venn diagram, and it holds the key to epidemiology, the study of epidemics. 

The circle labeled A represents the agent—meaning the bacterium, virus, parasite, or fungus that can, if conditions are right, infect a person, plant, or animal. The second circle, H, represents the host—the organism that becomes infected with the agent. The third circle, E, represents the environment—the external conditions that determine whether the agent will invade a host. The same three factors—agent, host, and environment—control whether people develop other diseases as well. The take-home lesson is that there are most often multiple causes for any one person’s sickness. 

The agent causing tuberculosis, for example, is the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis. But even if M. tuberculosis is present, the disease won’t always develop. It will be more likely to occur if the host is weakened, perhaps by malnutrition or an HIV infection, and if conditions are ripe for transmission. Ideal tuberculosis-transmitting conditions occur in close quarters, such as those in the gold mines of South Africa or 1980s-era crack houses or prisons in New York City, where infected people cough profusely into common airspace. A host with a strong immune system living in a healthy environment can usually fight off the infection by surrounding the slow-growing bacteria with immune cells, effectively quarantining them and preventing the disease. But a weak host in close quarters is more likely to be infected and have trouble fighting the disease. 

This framework of agent, host, and environment, I’d realized, could be adapted to assess the impacts of global change. When global change is considered, ecosystems are the host. This analogy works on several levels. First, like the human immune system, both land-and ocean-based ecosystems have components that fight disease. In the immune system, antibodies stun invading pathogens, and white blood cells devour them. In terrestrial (land-based) ecosystems, birds of prey, like the spotted owls of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, eat rodents that can carry Lyme-disease-infected ticks, hantavirus, and bubonic plague. In marine (ocean-based) ecosystems, baleen whales and oysters filter-feed on algae and animal plankton, preventing the plankton from overgrowing into harmful algal blooms. 

Second, just as a host is influenced by its environment, every ecosystem is influenced by the global environment. This includes the conditions in the lower atmosphere (troposphere), the upper atmosphere (stratosphere), the biosphere, the ice cover (cryosphere), and the world ocean. Even disregarding climate change, humans have made huge changes to the global environment. By using chlorofluorocarbons and related chemicals in our air conditioners and antiperspirants, we’ve damaged the ozone layer in the stratosphere that protects all land-based life from the sun’s damaging ultraviolet rays. 

By overfishing, we’ve decimated once-abundant populations of cod and many other species. By unwittingly releasing dangerous synthetic chemicals that act like hormones in animal bodies, we’ve altered the fate of countless species. The list of disturbances goes on. Climate change portends larger changes by affecting the viability of entire ecosystems. Persistent warming can kill off vegetation, turning grasslands into deserts, as it did when a changing climate transformed the Sudanese Sahara 5,500 years ago from a semiarid grassland suitable for grazing sheep to the bone dry desert it is today. 

Warming seas make it harder for coral to reproduce, contributing to the coral bleaching events that are destroying reefs worldwide. Warmer and more variable weather can enable insects, including crop pests, finally, the analogy works because human civilization is disrupting the functioning of the ecosystems that supply us with healthy food, clean air, and pure water, just as pathogenic microbes disrupt the functioning of the host’s body, upon whom they rely for life support. 

Human civilizations are also disrupting the global environment. The overlapping circles of this Venn diagram represent these interactions. All of our social structures—our economy, our legal system, our energy system—influence both ecosystems and the global environment. That means that the agent in this analogy is usThis Venn diagram is useful in part because it offers an easy-to-grasp framework that illustrates how complex real-world systems work. 

Conditions in a host, whether human or ecosystem, must be conducive for an agent, be it microbe or human society, to flourish. And when conditions are such that the agent, host, and environment are all disturbed, a small problem can turn into a big one. A cold virus invading the throat of an overstressed person can cause days of sickness; a wildlife disease invading a disturbed and weakened ecosystem can spread and become an epidemic.